UC Davis Health
2024
Preparing Healthcare Campuses for Long-Term Demands
How can healthcare campuses anticipate and adapt to future demands?
UC Davis Health (UCDH) faced a challenge: future demand was set to exceed supply, and upcoming seismic upgrade deadlines threatened to further reduce available space.
To start planning for this future, Cove developed a data-informed strategic framework that extended to 2060, complete with decision trees that guide UCDH through future decision-making.
Our Approach:
Speculative Design Scenarios
Demand Forecasting
Business Case Development
Facility Strategy
Expert-Informed Speculative Design
Planning for 2060 might seem like "flying cars" futurism, but our approach was grounded in reality. We consulted 15 thought leaders from large academic medical centers and analyzed research papers and news to create five future scenarios. These scenarios considered factors like technology, climate change, and population growth. Each was visualized with design mockups and contextualized with its impact on UC Davis Health's physical master plan.
Deep-Dive Focus on Supporting Services
While business planning often focuses on revenue-driving services, we recognized the importance of high-functioning support services like labs, pharmacies, and sterilization departments. Combining qualitative insights with quantitative data, we developed department-specific strategic plans that integrated into a comprehensive facility strategy.
Building Confidence for an Uncertain Future
Instead of prescribing a single future path, we organized the strategy into decision trees with pivotal junctures. Each scenario included full departmental programs and some were validated with business cases assessing NPV and ROI. This flexible framework allows UC Davis Health to adapt to market changes and make informed decisions at each juncture, ensuring tactics align with long-term goals.
Our Impact:
Enabled near-term project confidence, ensuring alignment with future plans and minimizing wasted effort.
Developed a medium-range growth strategy to keep hospital support services in sync with volume growth.
Established a long-range strategy for total campus redevelopment.